- LGT says,
expectations, rather than leading them. If they really wish to restore full confidence in a reflationary global outlook, central banks would now need to do more aggressive. Otherwise, the risk of a global recession is likely to rise further.
- CS says
Asian equity markets took a breather after rebounding strongly in the two previous trading days, while European stocks ended the day with small losses. Global cyclical sectors continued to outperform yesterday, merely catching up in the USA as the US market was closed on Monday for Presidents Day. We still consider it too early to buy broad equities as markets are likely to remain volatile, but we think that ultimately a resilient real economy will help financial assets recover. With risk appetite rather volatile, credit markets merely fluctuated yesterday. Still, most long benchmark bond yields finished slightly higher. As we expect most central banks to err on the side of caution or accommodate policy further, we prefer not to short fixed income. But with valuations now expensive after the YTD government bond rally, outright long positions in this segment are not warranted.
- BNP says,
1. Market turmoil on back of succession of negative drivers
2. Uncertainty should have some negative impact on growth outlook
3. Considerable impact on Fed rate outlook
4. This impacts monetary policy transmission in the euro area and in Japan
5. ECB now obliged to do significantly more
6. Concerns remain about developing economies
7. Stopping the negative feedback loop between markets and the economy depends
on Chinese and US data and on policy measures including Fed decisions
- Danske says,
Yesterday, oil ministers from Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela committed to freezing production at 11 January levels. The decision does not change the current oil market situation. Recent estimates suggest that both Russia and Saudi Arabia produced at levels close to a record high in January and the two leading oil producers have basically committed not to take any imminent action to reduce the current global overproduction of around 1.5m bpd. The announcement was a disappointment for the oil market and the price of Brent crude has dropped around USD 3 a barrel since the announcement. The market is very much waiting for the ECB and Fed meetings in March and ‘hoping’ for a big policy move from the ECB and for the Fed to at least go on ‘hold’ for now. Last night Fed voting member Rosengreen said “Monetary policy will be responsive to incoming economic data...But if the outlook doesn't improve from its current state...the normalization of monetary policy should be unhurried, and wait for economic data to improve". Early US economic data for February released yesterday showed a mixed picture. Empire manufacturing actually improved slightly to -16.54 from -19.37 in January and new orders also improved. It still points to a drop in activity but at a slower pace. In ISM terms this would translate into a 45 reading from the current 43.
Και κλείνω με τα διαγράμματα της ημέρας,
Και από μπανανία μεριά η είδηση της ημέρας αφορά τον ΟΠΑΠ και το αντάλλαγμα για το φόρο που θέλουν να επιβάλλουν (0,05 ανά στήλη) : VLT's και διαδικτυακές εταιρίες στοιχηματισμού. ΟΠΑΠ 5,90 +6,31%
http://www.capital.gr/epixeiriseis/3104509/-kaiei-i-trupa-ton-esodon-apo-ta-tuxera-paixnidia
