The speed with which the coronavirus pandemic is evolving has necessitated another round of huge cuts to Fitch Ratings’ global GDP forecasts.
We now expect world economic activity to decline by 1.9% in 2020 with US GDP down by 3.3%, the eurozone down by 4.2% and he UK down by 3.9%.
China’s recovery from the disruption in 1Q20 will be sharply curtailed by the global recession and annual growth will be below 2%.
These numbers are much worse than the baseline (and downside variant) of the March 2020 GEO forecast published on 19 March, when we expected global growth of over 1%.
The forecast fall in global GDP for the year as a whole is on a par with the global financial crisis but the immediate hit to activity and jobs in 1H20 will be worse.
