"Αποψίλωση" δελτίου FOMC statement of January 28, 2009

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. .......

Information received since the Committee met in December suggests that the economy has weakened further. Industrial production, housing starts, and employment have continued to decline steeply, as consumers and businesses have cut back spending. Furthermore, global demand appears to be slowing significantly. Conditions in some financial markets have improved, in part reflecting government efforts to provide liquidity and strengthen financial institutions; nevertheless, credit conditions for households and firms remain extremely tight. The Committee anticipates that a gradual recovery in economic activity will begin later this year, but the downside risks to that outlook are significant.

In light of the declines in the prices of energy and other commodities in recent months and the prospects for considerable economic slack, the Committee expects that inflation pressures will remain subdued in coming quarters. Moreover, the Committee sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability in the longer term.

The Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth and to preserve price stability.... The Federal Reserve continues to purchase large quantities of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities to provide support to the mortgage and housing markets, and it stands ready to expand the quantity of such purchases and the duration of the purchase program as conditions warrant. The Committee also is prepared to purchase longer-term Treasury securities if evolving circumstances indicate that such transactions would be particularly effective in improving conditions in private credit markets.........

Σχόλιο : Κάτι για deflation αρχίζουν και λένε (βλέπε άνωθεν) ή μου φάνηκε; Επίσης η οικονομική ανάκαμψη μετατέθηκε για το τέλος του 2009, με σημαντικές όμως επιφυλάξεις και για αυτό; Δύσκολα τα πράγματα. Το πλήρες κείμενο εδώ.

Το πάθημα έγινε μάθημα

Αμετάβλητο άφησε το παρεμβατικό της επιτόκιο η FED κατά τη σημερινή της συνεδρίαση.

"The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 2 percent.
Strains in financial markets have increased significantly and labor markets have weakened further. Economic growth appears to have slowed recently, partly reflecting a softening of household spending. Tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction, and some slowing in export growth are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters. Over time, the substantial easing of monetary policy, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate economic growth.
Inflation has been high, spurred by the earlier increases in the prices of energy and some other commodities. The Committee expects inflation to moderate later this year and next year, but the inflation outlook remains highly uncertain.
The downside risks to growth remain and the upside risks to inflation are also of significant concern to the Committee. The Committee will monitor economic and financial developments and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability."

Σχόλιο : Οι Αμερικανικές αγορές γύρισαν πτωτικά μετά την απόφαση της FED αλλά ο από μηχανής Θεός της "σωτηρίας" της AIG, στο φημολόγιο της ημέρας έγραψε τα υψηλά της ημέρας για τους δείκτες. Stop εντολές με προσοχή. Volatility και trading στην πρώτη γραμμή.

Wall Street people learn nothing and forget everything - Benjamin Graham

• Bearish battalions - Economist
  
• Global Equities: Oversold Is Not Enough - BCA Research
• Dow Average's Drop Into Bear Market May Signal Losses - Bloomberg
• ECB Introductory statement - ECB
  

Διαβάστε σήμερα 8/5/2008

• Εισαγωγική δήλωση Jean-Claude Trichet, Προέδρου της ΕΚΤ,Λουκά Παπαδήμου, Αντιπροέδρου της ΕΚΤ, Αθήνα, 8 Μαΐου 2008

Hildebrand (Swiss National Bank) comments

• Fearful of third wave of credit crisis
• Not yet out of the woods on credit crisis
• US housing market to decline further
• Sees spillover from US house market to other markets
• Not many reasons to be optimistic
• Risk of feedback cycle between markets, economy
• Things likely to deteriorate further
• Crisis is clearly not behind us

30-01-2008 Monetary Policy Release

"The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 50 basis points to 3 percent. Financial markets remain under considerable stress, and credit has tightened further for some businesses and households. Moreover, recent information indicates a deepening of the housing contraction as well as some softening in labor markets. The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, but it will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully. Today’s policy action, combined with those taken earlier, should help to promote moderate growth over time and to mitigate the risks to economic activity. However, downside risks to growth remain. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will act in a timely manner as needed to address those risks."

Source : http://www.federalreserve.gov/

Results of the January 2008 bank lending survey for the euro area

Results of the January 2008 bank lending survey for the euro area

Διαβάστε τα αποτελέσματα της δημοσκόπησης μεταξύ των ευρωπαικών τραπεζών για την κατάσταση της αγοράς δανείων.

Testimony by Chairman Bernanke on the economic outlook 17/01/2008

Testimony by Chairman Bernanke on the economic outlook

Διαβάστε την κατάθεση του Mr FED, για την οικονομική κατάσταση των ΗΠΑ, στη βουλή των αντιπροσώπων.

SNB Hildenbrand comments

• Current situation in credit markets very serious
• Precautions based on normal times do not fit in extraordinary situation
• Possible that problems, so far limited, could spill over
• Global economy extremely resistant to subprime crisis so far

ECB's Bini Smaghi Comments

• Credit May Be Reduced For Smaller Firms
• Subprime Crisis Will Curb Banking M&A
• Some Banks May Need To Boost Capital
• Subprime Crisis To Reduce Securitizations

ECB Trichet's press conference highlights - Keeps Rates Unchanged

• MONEY AND CREDIT GROWTH REMAINS VIGOROUS
• ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS REMAIN SOUND
• ECB STANDS READY TO COUNTER UPSIDE PRICE RISKS
• ECB TO PAY GREAT ATTENTION TO FINANCIAL MARKETS

BOE cuts rates by 0.25%

From BOE statement : "Conditions in financial markets have deteriorated and a tightening in the supply of credit to households and businesses is in train, posing downside risks to the outlook for both output and inflation further ahead."

EU Commission's forecasts

• Sees 2009 EMU HICP at 2.0% (first forecast)
• Sees 2009 Euro-Zone Economic Growth At 2.1%
• Ups 2008 EMU HICP forecast to 2.1% vs previous 1.9%
• Cuts 2008 EMU GDP forecast to +2.2% vs previous +2.5%
• Says Foreign Exchange "Misalignments" Persist
• Euro-Zone Inflation Rate To Rise To 2.4% In Coming Mos
• Says Global Econ Growth Should Help Euro-Zone Exports
• Sees Oil At $75-$81 A Barrel In Near- To Medium-Term

FOMC statement

Release Date: October 31, 2007

• The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 25 basis points to 4-1/2 percent.
  Economic growth was solid in the third quarter, and strains in financial markets have eased somewhat on balance. However, the pace of economic expansion will likely slow in the near term, partly reflecting the intensification of the housing correction.
• Today’s action, combined with the policy action taken in September, should help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets and promote moderate growth over time.
• Readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year, but recent increases in energy and commodity prices, among other factors, may put renewed upward pressure on inflation. In this context, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain, and it will continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.
• The Committee judges that, after this action, the upside risks to inflation roughly balance the downside risks to growth. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will act as needed to foster price stability and sustainable economic growth.

Σχόλιο : Μειωμένους ρυθμούς ανάπτυξης αναμένει η FED λόγω της συνεχιζόμενης διόρθωσης στην αγορά ακινήτων. Οι πληθωριστικές πιέσεις αν και εμφανίστηκαν ήπιες ως τώρα, αναμένεται να ενισχυθούν λόγω της αύξησης των τιμών της ενέργειας και των εμπορευμάτων. Το απειλητικό αυτό δίδυμο είναι που με ανησυχεί, και με ανησυχούσε.

Bernanke, Ericsson, Citigroup, Oil

• Bernanke : It remains too early to assess the extent to which household and business spending will be affected. The Fed will continue to watch the situation closely and will act as needed to support efficient market functioning and to foster sustainable economic growth and price stability. Investors are “continuing to reassess the risks they face” and have not yet fully regained confidence.
• Ericcson : Shares in the Swedish firm dropped 25% in Nordic trading after it warned that third-quarter sales, profit and margins will miss expectations due to a shortfall in mobile network upgrade sales. Chief Executive Officer Carl-Henric Svanberg said lower demand for network upgrades in North America and Europe hurt margins and forecast similar market conditions next year. Svanberg, who was due to report earnings Oct. 25, had told investors in London on Sept. 11 that industry growth was ``strong'' in the quarter.
• Citigroup : Bank told yesterday that the credit crunch could harm fourth-quarter results.
• Oil : Crude-oil futures closed Monday above $86 a barrel, as the market continued to take momentum from supply concerns due to risks to production in the Middle East and declines in U.S. crude inventories.

Αβεβαιότητας συνέχεια λοιπόν, με τον πρόεδρο της FED να τονίζει πως και το 2008 αναμένεται δύσκολο, την Ericsson να ανακοινώνει, ένα μήνα μετά την εκτίμηση της πως η ανάπτυξη είναι δυνατή, μειωμένες πωλήσεις - κέρδη - περιθώρια κερδών και να προβλέπει ίδιες άσχημες συνθήκες και για το 2008. Η Citigroup ενώ αρχικά με τη προειδοποίηση κερδοφορίας είχε αναφέρει πως κατά το 4ο τρίμηνο η αγορά ομαλοποιείται (βλέπε άρθρο), χθές ανακοίνωσε πως η πιστωτική ασφυξία θα επηρεάσει και τα κέρδη του τετάρτου τριμήνου. Είχα αναφέρει (βλέπε άρθρο) πως με τις αγορές στα υψηλά αρκετών ετών, η περίοδος της ανακοίνωσης των εταιρικών αποτελεσμάτων του 3ου τριμήνου της τρέχουσας χρήσης αναμένεται να δημιουργήσει αρκετές διακυμάνσεις, καθώς το τρίμηνο που έληξε είχε σαν κύριο χαρακτηριστικό την πιστωτική κρίση.

Bank Of Japan Fukui comments

• BOJ policy board decided to keep monetary policy steady
• We must carefully examine developments of the global economy and financial markets as they are still unstable, although the global economy is likely to keep expanding
• We will determine policy based on our own view of the economy and prices
• Although some improvements are seen in the U.S. and European economies since the Bank of Japan's policy board meeting last month, uncertainty still remains on the whole

From FOMC minutes

The FOMC said in its minutes that all voters favored the 50bps rate cuts in both the discount rate and the U.S. fed funds rates, and that it was needed to offset tighter financial conditions, so that was the "most prudent course of action" then. They also agreed that without a rate cut, there could be broader output and jobs weakness and they worried too that the then-impaired financial market function could continue. All agreed inflation risks remain and should be watched. They also said inflation risk could be heightened if the dollar falls significantly.

Ουσιαστικά αυτό που διαβάζουμε είναι αυτό που τονίζουμε εδώ και καιρό, πως οι πληθωριστικές πιέσεις είναι παρούσες και θα ενισχυθούν εάν συνεχιστεί η πτώση του δολλαρίου. Επίσης αυτό που διαφαίνεται είναι πως τα επιτόκια της FED θα παραμείνουν σταθερά για την ώρα.

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 18, 2007

Private nonfarm payroll employment rose only modestly in August, and the levels of employment in June and July were revised down. The weakness in employment was...

Διαβάστε τα πρακτικά της συνεδρίασης της FED στις 18/9/2007

Διαβάστε επίσης πως αντέδρασαν οι Αμερικανικές Αγορές με τη δημοσίευση των στοιχείων

ECB : THE EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY Oct 2007

Credit standards: Reflecting the credit market turmoil affecting euro area banks over the past weeks, credit standards for loans or credit lines to enterprises tightened in net terms in the third quarter of 2007 (31% compared with -3% in the previous quarter). This follows a long period where credit standards remained basically unchanged or were slightly eased (see Chart 1a, panel a). It may furthermore be noted that virtually all banks, which tightened credit standards on loans to enterprises .......

Διαβάστε την πλήρη έκθεση - Read the full report

ECB press conference highlights

• May Increase Rates Even If Policy Not Accommodative
• We Confirm Ready To Act Whenever Necessary On CPI
• Upward Risks To Price Stability Over Medium Term
• Money, Credit Growth Remain Vigorous
• Ready To Counter Upside CPI Risks
• Heightened Uncertainty To Baseline Econ Scenario
• Favorable Medium-Term Outlook For Economy
• "Particular Caution" Needed Given Fin Mkt Conds
• ECB To Monitor Price Risks "Very Closely"
• Confidence Indicators Still Above Historic Average
• Econ Growth To Continue In 3Q And 4Q
• 2008 Econ Outlook For Growth Around Potential
• Long-Term Econ Growth Risks On The Downside
• CPI Likely Around 2% On Average In 2008
• Wage Developments May Be Stronger Than Expected
• Monetary Analysis Confirms Medium, Long-Term Risks
• August M3 Growth May Reflect Temporary Factors
• Money, Credit Data To Offer Insight Into Volatility
• Monetary Developments Require Very Close Monitoring
• Euro Exchange Rate A Parameter For Monetary Policy
• Excessive Volatility Destructive
• Markets Should Consider Japanese Fundamentals
• Market should take account of better fundamentals in Japan
• Upside CPI Risks Are On Our Radar Screen
• Money Mkt Tensions Reflect Liquidity Hoarding
• 3-Month Money Mkt Rates Signaling Tension
• Tensions Triggered By Phenomena Outside Money Mkt