Morning comment, 24/4/2017 UBS

• The French election result went as predicted by the opinion polls. Opinion polls have been wrong when the turnout was unexpected. The French turnout was in line with past elections. The success of the polls means investors are more trusting of second round predictions of a Macron victory.
• The euro has strengthened on the news but not excessively. The price of the euro is driven by domestic investors. Domestic investors understand domestic politics better than foreign investors. European investors have been saying for some time that France's elections were not a major concern.
• Several opinion polls are due today – the German Ifo, the UK CBI and the US Dallas and Chicago Fed surveys of business sentiment. Media reporting of such indicators is getting worse – these are sentiment polls not measures of economic growth.
• US President Trump has a busy week. A tax plan has been promised by Wednesday (or shortly after) – Trumpcare has been put to one side it seems. GDP is due, subject to the curse of the first quarter which tends to weaken the data. There is the possibility of a government shutdown (probably short lived) on Friday.