Summary
- Semiconductor stocks stand to gain from the global chip shortages. ON Semi, Qualcomm and Microchip Technology are EV semiconductor stocks to watch.
- The auto sector took a beating during the pandemic but is rebounding. Some EV stocks look attractive given the political environment, rising gas prices, and expansion of charging stations.
- In 2022, US auto sales are expected to increase to $16M from $15M. Top automaker Ford wants all-in on electric and is addressing the chip shortage their way.
- Compared to its EV rivals Tesla and Apple, Ford offers solid fundamentals, a reasonable valuation framework, excellent Quant Factor grades, upward earnings revisions, and incredible stock momentum.
Bill Pugliano/Getty Images News
Automobiles and Semiconductor Chip Shortage
Over the last several years, the rapid growth of Electric Vehicles (EV) has been nothing short of astonishing. As Brendan Ahern said in his article, The Unstoppable EV Ecosystem And How To Invest, "The past two years have seen tremendous excitement in the global electric vehicles (EVs) industry as new companies listed shares, Tesla (TSLA) was added to the S&P 500, global governments stepped up electrification commitments, and electric vehicle sales soared, especially in China and the EU." This overview sums up the progress of EVs in the auto sector.
Our Top Automotive pick, Ford (F), is up 132% YTD and is in an enviable position on fundamentals at this time compared to Tesla, up 37% YTD. And despite Apple's (AAPL) accelerating plans for an autonomous vehicle, which they have deemed their mother of all Ai projects, so far, they are all talk with no viable EV product offering. Apple’s entry into the autonomous vehicle space is a topic of speculation. Notably, there is more than one way to invest in the EV revolution. It comes down to "what’s inside?"
Cars are like the new mainframe computers. A new car can have more than two thousand chips, blowing away a smartphone with perhaps four chips. Semiconductors play a significant role in today's automotive sector, especially EVs, which is why we find their stocks attractive. ON Semi (ON), Qualcomm (QCOM), and Microchip Technology (MCHP) are some of the best suppliers for the automotive sector. Supply chain constraints and Asian factory shutdowns have drastically impacted automotive sales. Despite the supply shortage, there's been high demand, and we've seen the cost of semiconductor shortages balloon above 90%, according to a Bloomberg News Article.
With a record 21 weeks to fill chip orders, Dan Hearsch, Managing Director of AlixPartners Automotive and Industrial Practice said, "It certainly feels like the most protracted supply shortage the industry has seen because it's not over." Despite the lack of semiconductors, automotive prices continue to climb, reaching records in the U.S. over $42,000 per vehicle, making chip manufacturers like ON Semi, Qualcomm, and Microchip Technology Incorporated Very Bullish buys, especially given their demand in EVs.
ON Semiconductor Corporation
ON Semiconductor is a stock I recently wrote about in an article called Top 5 Tech Stocks For 2022. A Fortune 1000 Company, ON Semi is a semiconductor and leading power management provider that uses signal and custom device technologies for communications, automotive, computing, and other uses. EV advancements allow for increased use of semiconductors in-vehicle platforms' electronics content, improving occupant safety through imaging and sensor function technology; sensor functions by way of algorithms enable vehicles to take immediate action to avoid accidents. This electrification is also used in the powertrain and vehicle auxiliary systems, with semiconductor technology at the forefront.
The Seeking Alpha News Team recently reported ON Semi as a top pick at Citigroup. Citigroup analyst Christopher Danely said, "With January's earnings season on the horizon, now is a prime time for investors to buy semiconductor stocks as chip-sector shortages don't appear to be getting better any time soon... Danely notes that business conditions for the semiconductor industry have not been this strong since 1999 and 2000 and that "many" companies are booked solid with orders through 2022."
ON carries a C+ Valuation Grade, remaining attractive relative to its sector by more than 7.29%, at a Forward P/E of 22.43x. Additionally, ON's growth, profitability, and momentum metrics are attractive.
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Momentum is a strong A+ Grade for ON Semiconductor, as they continue to have stellar price returns, with a price-performance return over 10 years exceeding 700%. Diving into ON’s growth grades, the company has a strong year-over-year EBITDA Growth grade of A- at 134.70% above the sector, and EPS FWD Long Term grade of A+, 208% above the sector. As we continue to dive into semiconductors important to vehicle automation, there is another name in the chip industry helping increase the trend towards EVs.
Qualcomm
QCOM gets a significant portion of its revenue from products aimed at the automotive sector. QCOM is already the world's biggest supplier of mobile phone chips, a wireless technology innovator, and 5G driver. The company has announced it will continue to expand into next-generation self-driving vehicles. SA news just reported Qualcomm could rally 25% higher in the next six months, according to Cerity Partners' Jim Lebenthal. Qualcomm, who already works with firms like Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms (FB), wants to grab hold of the EV market share, which is significantly higher than the phone chip industry, according to Cristiano Amon, QCOM President and CEO. In a November Press Release, Amon said, "Our announcement with BMW today is the onset of a new era in automotive where two technology leaders have come together to design and develop…the next-generation automobile…we see an incredible number of changes in the industry that are driving things and putting Qualcomm at the intersection of demand for virtually every industry."
When looking at QCOM's Factor Grades below, it's clear why we believe they are on solid footing.
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QCOM comes at a reasonable valuation, trading nearly 30% below its sector with a forward P/E of 17.27+; Forward PEG is almost 63% below the sector. The stock has strong growth, excellent profitability metrics, and many analysts increasing their earnings estimates. As fellow Seeking Alpha author Valuentum writes, "Qualcomm's growth trajectory is supported by its push into the automotive arena and the IoT trend, which are expected to grow its total addressable market opportunity over the next decade."
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In addition to its strong profitability, QCOM is one of the best dividend-paying technology stocks. QCOM has a Dividend Growth Grade of A+. Because the trend and rise in popularity of electric vehicles is not the only way to make money, we are emphasizing another top semiconductor leading the wave of rising EVs, Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP).
Microchip Technology Incorporated
Another top EV chip-maker is MCHP, whose chips are used in wireless apps and devices for power management. MCHP’s chips specifically designed for electric vehicles is the artificial intelligence used to centralize computing and navigation and the powertrains and charging systems. Rated Very Bullish, out of 557 of our Top Tech Stocks, MCHP is ranked in the top 10% of this screener and continues to be on an upward trajectory, as evidenced by its B+ Momentum Grade.
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Following recent Q2 Earnings results, Jefferies Financial Group, among other analysts, has increased their MCHP price target of $98 to $109, which implies a 22.7% upside. With an EPS of $1.07 that beat by $0.01 and Revenue of $1.65B beating nearly 26% YoY, it’s no wonder there are 21 FY1 Up Revisions in the last 90 days, prompting an A- Revisions Grade.
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As we look to the EV sector capitalizing on the use of semiconductors and investors wanting to know more about stocks in this space, let us discuss Ford (F), who recently partnered with GlobalFoundries (GFS), a multinational semiconductor manufacturing and design company to address the semiconductor shortage, thus positioning themselves as the next prominent EV manufacturer to rival Tesla and Apple in the space.
YTD F, AAPL, TSLA PRICE RETURN COMPARISON
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Ford
Ford has been a differentiator since the invention of the automobile. Ford’s partnering with semiconductor company GlobalFoundries clarifies that it wants to lead the industry and evolve by all means necessary, striking deals with companies to source materials and the parts required to avoid supply chain disruptions. "Semiconductor is going to become the defining line for differentiation in the automotive experience. I believe you're seeing automotive companies want to become what I would call more silicon aware. And that's exactly what Ford is doing in their MOU they signed with G.F. They want to first make sure that they understand the supply-demand dynamics… to make sure they influence the technology road maps for foundries so that the features that we create align with their needs," Tom Caulfield GFS CEO, Q3 2021 Earnings Call. So how does Ford compare to its E.V. rivals, Tesla and Apple, in the electric car race?
Ford Valuation vs. Tesla and Apple
Ford is undervalued with an overall valuation grade of C, forward P/E trading -25.82%, and the sector at 14.55X. The forward PEG ratio has an A+ grade, trading nearly 82% below the sector. When we compare Ford, Apple, and Tesla on Valuation, TSLA and AAPL receive an overall F Grade.
Compared to Tesla and Apple with F Valuation Grades, both look unattractive on a PEG basis (P/E Ratio divided by EPS long-term growth). Tesla PEG of 3.52X is 263.70% above the sector, and Apple PEG of 2.81X, 70.78% above the sector.
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Seeking Alpha’s Valuation Grade provides a unique view of how much a company is worth relative to other stocks in the same sector. Thanks to dozens of underlying metrics, the grades provide an instant characterization of the strength or weakness of the metric compared to similar stocks. Ford looks attractive on a 0.17X PEG basis and is not overvalued compared to the sector, with a median PEG of 0.97X.
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While a C grade is not ideal, Ford still looks attractive. As a pioneer in its industry, it should fare well in the EV space. According to Aswath Damodaran, Professor of Finance at the Stern School of Business at N.Y. University, the Automotive and Truck sector is sitting pretty, with a current P/E of 164.37 based upon January 2021 data and expected growth of 18.8% over the next five years with a PEG ratio of 8.87.
Apple's announcement of a fully autonomous vehicle has turned heads, especially given its wide range of technology and persistent delays to the project. Apple Car Project is being led by Ai and machine learning Chief John Giannandrea. "We're focusing on autonomous systems. It's a core technology that we view as very important. We sort of see it as the mother of all AI projects. It's probably one of the most difficult AI projects actually to work on" said, Apple CEO Tim Cook. Whereas Tesla and Ford have a leg up with emphasis in the automotive industry, as John Engel emphasizes in his Seeking Alpha article, "Ultimately, I see little about the automotive sector – EV or otherwise – that would make it a natural fit for Apple. While I suspect the development of the Apple Car over the next few years will act as a positive catalyst for Apple's stock, it will end up being more of a liability than an asset." Let's compare each of their growth and profitability grades.
Ford Growth and Profitability vs. Tesla and Apple
With plans to build over 600,000 EV's annually by 2025 and Ford CEO Jim Farley pushing for 40% of its vehicles to be battery powered by 2030, its transition to electric cars is proving to be successful. Led by its fully-electric Mustang Mach-EFord, Ford set a new September record with EV sales surging 92% from the previous year to 9,150. Adding insult to injury, Doug Field, "One of the top product leaders from Apple, Tesla and Segway," left Apple after aiding in the launch of its electric vehicle, poached by Ford as their new Chief Advanced Technology Officer. Online speculation indicates that this move may be the final nail in the Apple EV coffin. While it's all speculation, as we compare the three EV makers, it's clear why we believe Ford will prove the victor and the EV stock to watch.
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Ford has delivered a stock price increase of more than 62% over the last five years and an increase of more than 132% YTD, bringing both A- Growth and A+ Profitability Factor Grades. With a Very Bullish rating and continually evolving in the changing landscape of electric vehicles, Ford is set to continue delivering results in the vehicle sector. Ford is built tough and has been resilient despite chip shortages and the effects brought on by the pandemic. Ford continues to introduce new vehicles and will launch an all-electric F-150 Lightning in 2022 that possesses a maximum towing capacity of 10,000 pounds and a range of up to 300 miles. According to the CEO, there's a massive demand for this truck with 200,000 reservations.
Image Source: 2022 Ford® F-150 Lightning Electric Truck |All Electric and All F-150
The American-made F-150 Lightning and its next-generation full-size electric pickup are developing in high volumes at its new facility in Blue Oval City, Tennessee. The numbers don't lie, and despite a semiconductor shortage, there's no shortage of buyers seeking Ford vehicles. The momentum is sure to continue, especially as Ford manages its partnership with GlobalFoundries and continues to make strides to outpace Tesla and Apple.
While we continue to see vehicles generated by Ford, we have yet to see the release of an actual Apple EV. Tesla, on the other hand, the pioneer of the electric vehicle, continues to showcase why their cutting-edge battery technology is rated the best car in its class. It's no secret that Tesla continues to build cars for more and more people, making products accessible and affordable while also bridging the gap towards clean transport and renewable energy.
Image Source: Model S
We feel Ford's biggest contender in the EV space is Tesla, and Ford also contends that it will be the No. 2 EV producer in two years. Following a Ford EPS of $0.51 beats by $0.24 and 19 FY1 Up Revisions in the last 90 days, it's no wonder Ford is neck-to-neck with its competitors on Profitability with A+ ratings. Ford's continued strength indicates why Jim Farley, Ford CEO during the Q3 Earnings Call, said, "We're moving aggressively to lead the electric vehicle revolution, substantially expanding our battery production as we speak today in the U.S. In fact, we already announced plans that will give us enough battery production to meet our mid-decade goal of 141 gigawatts, which is enough to build more than 1 million battery electric vehicles a year, and I think we'll need more."
FORD EARNINGS AND REVISIONS
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Ford, Tesla, and Apple Momentum
Each of the stocks, Ford, Tesla, and Apple continue to put their money where they believe there is an upside. Momentum is a successful trading strategy in which investors buy rising stocks and sell as they're retreating, and it is a vital factor for predicting stock price performance for those wanting to hold long term.
Investor confidence remains high in the EV space, with each stock exhibiting A or better Momentum Grades. Year-to-date, Ford has remained up 57.27% over the previous three months while the sector is down nearly 5%. Tesla is up 30% and Apple more than 17%.
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Conclusion: Ford Is Built Tough and an EV Stock To Watch
Electric Vehicle stocks can make a great return on investment, especially if you can identify those with fair valuations, excellent fundamentals and capitalize on their growth and momentum. In addition, sectors linked to EVs like semiconductors can also be great stock picks. In the current environment, where each of these stock picks offers a good balance of growth and value, it's a great play to diversify your portfolio and ride the EV and semiconductor wave. With the better valuation and continued advancements and momentum, we believe that Ford is the most opportune of the EV stock picks, but it's up to you to decide for yourself.
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Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
